Sports betting may seem well like a game of luck. However, some strategies employed to play it put bettors at a higher advantage. Thus, there are different betting systems used by bettors that help them place the right bet and increase their chances of winning. One of these ways is by having the edge over a bookmaker and betting on these odds. This gambling system is known as value betting and is known by only a few experts who have earned satisfactorily from it from different betting sites like PlayAmo.
However, value betting is not for experts alone, and as a gambler still finding root in the betting world, you can use it to gain an additional advantage. To ascertain that specific odds have value bets, you’d have to do a bit of calculation and research. This article will lead you through how to go about this and all you need to know about value betting.
What is value betting?
Value betting involves looking for odds that give you an edge over a bookmaker. So, where you find a bet where the probability of the outcome is higher than what the bookies state it to be, that’s a value bet. To clarify, value betting has to do with placing bets that have a greater chance of winning than the bookmaker implies. However, to know if an odd has a value bet, you must find out yourself.
How to calculate probabilities and value bets
If you still need to understand how value betting works, here’s a fundamental way to calculate what odds have value bets.
Step one: Calculate the market probability
First, you’ll need to calculate the market probability and fair probability of your odds winning. For instance, if a bookmaker gives 2.50 of Manchester United beating Chelsea in the next match, calculate the market probability using the formula (1/decimal odds)x100. This means (1/2.50)x 100, which will equal 40%. This means the bookmaker offers a 40% chance that Manchester United will beat Chelsea.
Step two: Calculate the fair probability
You can use this same formula to calculate your fair probability, but instead of the bookie’s odds, use your estimated odds. For instance, if your calculated odds is 2.0, your fair probability will be calculated as (1/2)x100, which gives 50%. This is how you calculate fair probability and market probability.
Step three: Calculate the value bet
So, the final stage to know if this is a value bet is by using this formula, (Fair probability – Market probability) / Market probability which amounts to (50% – 40%)/40% using the instances given above. The result of this calculation is 0.25, which is greater than 0. A number above zero is a value bet.
Thus, a bet becomes a value bet when your calculated odds are low so that when you calculate the fair probability and market probability, the bet is higher than zero, which makes it a value bet. However, where the calculated odds are higher, your number will likely be lower than zero, which is negative and will not amount to a value bet.
You use the value bet strategy for different kinds of bets, including 1x2bets, Live betting, 2-way bets and Asian handicaps. The value bet strategy is generally one of the best betting systems in the world and is one of the best ways to ensure profitability when sports betting.